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Ranked: Who Are the Richest People in Africa?
This graphic ranks the richest people in Africa. Aliko Dangote from Nigeria leads the group.
Ranked: Who Are the Richest People in Africa?
The African continent is home to 46 billionaires, the second-lowest total of any global region.
The number of wealthy individuals in Africa is growing, however. Total private wealth is expected to rise 30% over the next decade, led by growth in the billionaire and millionaire segments.
Visualized here are Africa’s richest, using data collected by Forbes, on billionaires who reside on the continent and have their primary business there.
Breaking Down Africa’s Billionaires
The richest man in Africa is also the richest Black man in the world. Once a small sugar trader, Aliko Dangote now has a net worth of $13.5 billion. He is the 86th richest person in the world, and single-handedly makes up 25% of the total wealth of African billionaires.
His company, the Dangote Group is now an African conglomerate with interests in a range of sectors, including sugar, cement, and real estate.
Rank Name Net Worth (billions, USD) Industry Citizenship
1 Aliko Dangote $13.5 Manufacturing 🇳🇬 Nigeria
2 Johann Rupert & family $10.7 Fashion & Retail 🇿🇦 South Africa
3 Nicky Oppenheimer & family $8.4 Metals & mining 🇿🇦 South Africa
4 Abdulsamad Rabiu $7.6 Diversified 🇳🇬 Nigeria
5 Nassef Sawiris $7.3 Construction & Engineering 🇪🇬 Egypt
6 Mike Adenuga $6.3 Diversified 🇳🇬 Nigeria
7 Issad Rebrab & family $4.6 Food & Beverage 🇩🇿 Algeria
8 Naguib Sawiris $3.3 Telecom 🇪🇬 Egypt
9 Patrice Motsepe $3.2 Metals & mining 🇿🇦 South Africa
10 Mohamed Mansour $2.9 Diversified 🇪🇬 Egypt
11 Koos Bekker $2.6 Media & Entertainment 🇿🇦 South Africa
12 Strive Masiyiwa $1.9 Telecom 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe
13 Mohammed Dewji $1.5 Diversified 🇹🇿 Tanzania
13 Aziz Akhannouch & family $1.5 Diversified 🇲🇦 Morocco
13 Youssef Mansour $1.5 Diversified 🇪🇬 Egypt
The top three—Alike Dangote, Johann Rupert, and Nicky Oppenheimer—account for 40% of the total wealth of those ranked.
A Look Through the Rest of the Richest People in Africa
At number two on the list is Johann Rupert. The chairman of Swiss luxury goods company, Compagnie Financiere Richemont, started his career with a banking apprenticeship in New York, before returning to South Africa and eventually pivoting to retail.
Through the rest of those ranked, a range of diverse business activities have allowed these billionaires to garner their wealth.
Nicky Oppenheimer (3rd) and Patrice Motsepe (9th)—have made fortunes in the mining industry, a sector that contributes nearly 10% to sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP. Meanwhile, Naguib Sawiris (8th) and Strive Masiyiwa (12th) have built telecom empires.
Billionaire Wealth Mirrors Country Wealth
Only seven out of the 54 African countries are represented on Africa’s rich list, and even amongst them, three countries (Egypt, South Africa, and Nigeria) account for more than two-thirds of the top-ranked billionaires.
Country Rank in African Economy Individuals on Top 15 Billionaire List
🇳🇬 Nigeria #1 3
🇿🇦 South Africa #2 4
🇪🇬 Egypt #3 4
The home countries for these billionaires reflect the nation’s’ contribution to the African economy as a whole. Nigeria, South Africa, and Egypt have the top three GDPs in Africa.
Algeria—where Issad Rebrab (7th) is from—is ranked fourth, and Morocco—where Aziz Akhannouch (13th) is based—is fifth.
What’s Next For Africa’s Richest?
Africa has routinely been touted to become a future economic powerhouse as its demographic dividend pays off in the next few decades. However, its biggest challenge will be developing its economic and social infrastructure to retain local talent to make their fortunes at home.
WEALTH Ranked: Who Are the Richest People in Africa? Published on July 18, 2023
By Shakir Essa
Which Cities Hold Africa’s Wealth?
Map: Which Cities Hold Africa’s Wealth?
Which Cities Hold Africa’s Wealth?
Mapping Africa’s Wealth
The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.
The economy in Africa is on the rise, and financial hubs are beginning to emerge.
While the resource-rich African continent has seen only 13% growth in total private wealth over the past 10 years, the 3% spike in the past year alone indicates the growth is just warming up. Africa will also be home to 13 out of the 20 of the world’s largest megacities by 2100.
In this week’s chart, we take a look at Africa’s wealthiest cities, courtesy of this recent 2018 report from New World Wealth and AfrAsia Bank.
Africa’s Evolving Economy
While Africa has traditionally played a minor role in the world market, the continent is coming into its own as a hub for financial services and entrepreneurship.
Africa’s growing elite has added 19,000 millionaires over the past decade, with total private wealth totaling $2.3 trillion. These figures are predicted to increase by 34% over the next decade, reaching $3.1 trillion by the end of 2027.
The five wealthiest cities hail from three countries:
1. Johannesburg, South Africa ($276 billion)
Founded in the Witwatersrand Gold Rush of 1886, South Africa’s City of Gold is a hub for financial services, professional services (law firms and consultancies), construction, telecommunications, and basic materials.
2. Cape Town, South Africa ($155 billion)
One of South Africa’s three capital cities, Cape Town’s major sectors include real estate, financial services, retail, and tourism. Cape Town has the highest prime residential rates on the continent at US$6,100 per square meter, similar to cities such as Washington, D.C., or Berlin.
3. Cairo, Egypt ($140 billion)
A hub for Africa and the Middle East, Cairo’s major sectors include real estate, construction, financial services, and basic materials.
4. Lagos, Nigeria ($108 billion)
The clearing house for 80% of Nigeria’s imports, major sectors include basic materials, real estate, construction, telecommunications, transport, and financial services.
5. Durban, South Africa ($55 billion)
Home to the biggest shopping center in Africa – complete with 350 stores, 70 restaurants, 18 movie theaters, an IMAX theater, an indoor climbing wall, and a skate park designed by Tony Hawk – Durban’s major sectors include real estate, finance, healthcare, construction, retail, and transport.
The Full List of Cities
Here is a full ranking of the top 23 cities in Africa, based on New World Wealth’s data.
Rank City Country Total Private Wealth (USD)
#1 Johannesburg South Africa $276 billion
#2 Cape Town South Africa $155 billion
#3 Cairo Egypt $140 billion
#4 Lagos Nigeria $108 billion
#5 Durban South Africa $55 billion
#6 Nairobi Kenya $54 billion
#7 Luanda Angola $49 billion
#8 Pretoria South Africa $48 billion
#9 Casablanca Morocco $42 billion
#10 Accra Ghana $38 billion
#11 Abidjan Côte d’Ivoire $27 billion
#12 Dar es Salaam Tanzania $25 billion
#13 Alexandria Egypt $25 billion
#14 Kampala Uganda $16 billion
#15 Windhoek Namibia $13 billion
#16 Abuja Nigeria $13 billion
#17 Addis Ababa Ethiopia $13 billion
#18 Marrakesh Morocco $11 billion
#19 Tangier Morocco $11 billion
#20 Lusaka Zambia $10 billion
#21 Maputo Mozambique $10 billion
#22 Gaborone Botswana $9 billion
#23 Mombasa Kenya $8 billion
With a growth trajectory on the rise and renewed interest in African investment, what will Africa’s economy look like ten years from now?
Corruption in Countries Around the World
The Most Corrupt Countries and the least Corrupt countries in the world,
Mapped: Corruption in Countries Around the World
Mapped: Corruption in Countries Around the World
How bad is public sector corruption around the world, and how do different countries compare?
No matter your system of government, the public sector plays a vital role in establishing your economic mobility and political freedoms. Measuring corruption—the abuse of power for private gain—reveals how equal a system truly is.
For more than a decade, the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) by Transparency International has been the world’s most widely-used metric for scoring corruption. This infographic uses the 2021 CPI to visualize corruption in countries around the world, and the biggest 10-year changes.
Which Countries are Most (and Least) Corrupt?
How do you measure corruption, which includes behind-the-scenes deals, nepotism, corrupt prosecution, and bribery?
Over the last few decades, the CPI has found success doing so indirectly through perceptions.
By aggregating multiple analyses from country and business experts, the index assigns each country a score on a scale of 0 to 100, where 0 is highly corrupt and 100 is very clean.
Here are the results of the 2021 CPI, with the least corrupt countries at the top:
Search:
Corruption Perception by Country Score (2021)
Denmark 88
Finland 88
New Zealand 88
Norway 85
Singapore 85
Sweden 85
Switzerland 84
Netherlands 82
Luxembourg 81
Germany 80
Showing 1 to 10 of 180
Ranking at the top of the index with scores of 88 are Nordic countries Denmark and Finland, as well as New Zealand.
They’ve consistently topped the CPI over the last decade, and Europe in general had 14 of the top 20 least corrupt countries. Asia also had many notable entrants, including Singapore (tied for #4), Hong Kong (#12), and Japan (tied for #18).
Comparatively, the Americas only had two countries score in the top 20 least corrupt: Canada (tied for #13) and Uruguay (tied for #18). With a score of 67, the U.S. scored at #28 just behind Bhutan, the UAE, and France.
Scoring towards the bottom of the index were many countries currently and historically going through conflict, primarily located in the Middle East and Africa. They include Afghanistan, Venezuela, Somalia, and South Sudan. The latter country finishes at the very bottom of the list, with a score of just 11.
How Corruption in Countries Has Changed (2012–2021)
Corruption is a constant and moving global problem, so it’s also important to measure which countries have had their images improved (or worsened).
By using CPI scores dating back to 2012, we can examine how country scores have changed over the last decade:
Search:
Change in Corruption by Country 10-Year Trend (2012-2021)
Seychelles +18
Armenia +15
Italy +14
Greece +13
Myanmar +13
Guyana +11
Uzbekistan +11
Estonia +10
Latvia +10
Belarus +10
The biggest climber with +18 was Seychelles, Africa’s smallest country and also its least corrupt with a score of 70. Other notable improvements include neighboring countries Estonia, Latvia, and Belarus, with Estonia rising into the top 15 least corrupt countries.
On the opposite side, both Australia (-12) and Canada (-10) have actually fallen out of the top 10 least corrupt countries over the last decade. They’re joined by decreases in Hungary (-12) and Syria (-13), which is now ranked as the world’s second-most corrupt country.
Which countries will rise and fall in corruption perceptions over the next 10 years, and how do your perceptions compare with this list?
Mapping the World’s Youngest and Oldest Countries
Country age demographics are determined by two key factors: fertility and mortality.
Throughout history, it was typical to see both birth and death rates at higher levels. But today, in most parts of the world, women are having fewer children, and innovations in healthcare and technology mean we are all living longer. The average person today lives to 72.6 years old, while the rate of births per woman has fallen to 2.5.
These trends have drastically altered the demographics of mature economies, resulting in a much older population. In many developing countries, however, births still outweigh deaths, resulting in populations that skew younger.
This visualization uses data from the World Bank to examine the countries with the highest shares of old and young people.
The Fountain of Youth
By 2030, the United Nations estimates there will be 1.3 billion people on the planet between the ages of 15-24. Proving to be a fountain of youth globally, the continent of Africa boasts the top 10 countries with the largest shares of young people in the world.
Somalia, Zambia, and the DRC are just a few to crack the top 10 list. The youngest country in the world is Niger, where almost 50% of the population is below the age of 15.
Here’s a full list of global countries, sorted by percentage of population under 15 years old:
Search:
Country Share of Population Younger Than 15 (% of total, 2019)
🇳🇪 Niger 49.8%
🇲🇱 Mali 47.3%
🇹🇩 Chad 46.8%
🇦🇴 Angola 46.6%
🇺🇬 Uganda 46.5%
🇸🇴 Somalia 46.4%
🇨🇩 Congo, Dem. Rep. 46.0%
🇧🇮 Burundi 45.4%
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso 44.7%
🇿🇲 Zambia 44.5%
Showing 1 to 10 of 191 entriesPreviousNext
Young countries have significant opportunities ahead of them. A younger population means a larger upcoming workforce and more opportunities for innovation and economic growth.
While domestic markets in Africa grow in terms of labor supply, innovation, and potential consumers, there are also challenges that arise in these countries. Corruption, political instability and unemployment, particularly in Africa, are all potential barriers to prosperity for the continent’s Gen Z population.
Populations Skewing Older
The world’s oldest country is Japan, where 28% of the population is older than 65. However, it’s an anomaly—the rest of the oldest countries in the top 10 are all in Europe.
Globally, it’s the 65+ age group that is growing the fastest. According to the same UN estimates, it is predicted that by 2050 that one in six people will be over 65 years old.
Here’s a full list of global countries, sorted by percentage of population over 65 years old:
Search:
Country Share of Population Older Than 65 (% of total, 2019)
🇯🇵 Japan 28.0%
🇮🇹 Italy 23.0%
🇵🇹 Portugal 22.4%
🇫🇮 Finland 22.1%
🇬🇷 Greece 21.9%
🇩🇪 Germany 21.5%
🇧🇬 Bulgaria 21.2%
🇭🇷 Croatia 20.8%
🇲🇹 Malta 20.8%
🇫🇷 France 20.3%
Showing 1 to 10 of 192 entriesPreviousNext
Fewer births, and a resulting older population, is a trend attributed to the changing lifestyles of women. For example, Japan’s fertility rate has fallen to less than 1.5 children per woman due to modern access to contraceptives and the prioritization of work over marriage and family life.
However, fewer young people also means a smaller workforce on the horizon and a shrinking domestic market. There is also a rising social cost of caring for the elderly, as longer lifespans have resulted in a higher prevalence of chronic diseases and an increasing inability to care for oneself. This can result in an increased tax burden on the diminishing younger, working population.
Another Perspective on the Data
Looking at the data from the opposite angle also reveals information about our world. Here’s a look at the countries with the lowest proportions of younger or older people.
youngest and oldest countries
Hong Kong and Singapore have some of the lowest fertility rates in the world (1.1), so it’s no surprise to see low numbers of children in their demographic data.
In a country like the United Arab Emirates, the majority of the population is made up of foreign workers, so the number of people in the 65+ age group is extremely low. In the coming decades though, the situation is expected to shift dramatically with one in every five Emiratis residing that age group by 2050.
The Big Picture
While each country has its own unique demographic make up, one thing is clear. As education and wealth levels rise around the world, fertility rates are dropping almost everywhere.
The trend of long life expectancies and fewer births is likely to continue, but young outliers will remain and they present immense economic potential.
Russia, China Drive Africa’s Plan for Nuclear Expansion
Russia and China Drive Africa’s Plan for Nuclear ExpansionOfficials in South Africa and across the African continent continue to explore new nuclear power generation projects, and the region provides an opportunity for other countries to export their advanced nuclear technologies.
South Africa’s Department of Mineral Resources and Energy in May said it wants a plan to procure as much as 2.5 GW of nuclear generation capacity within the next five years.
South Africa today has just two commercial reactors, both at the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station north of Cape Town.1.
The Koeberg Nuclear Power Station, which was commissioned in 1984 and is operated by South Africa state-owned utility Eskom, features two pressurized water reactors, each with 970 MW of generation capacity.
Koeberg (Figure 1) is the only nuclear power plant currently in commercial operation on the entire African continent, although the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently said nearly a dozen other African nations have talked with the IAEA about formulating plans for nuclear power.
The World Nuclear Association said at least seven sub-Saharan African states have signed agreements to deploy nuclear power with backing from Russia.
Rosatom, the state-owned Russian nuclear company, is “currently working with more than 15 sub-Saharan African countries, including Ghana, Zambia, Kenya, South Africa, the Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania and others; as well as with the following North African countries: Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco,” according to Ryan Collyer, acting CEO of Rosatom Central and Southern Africa, who corresponded with POWER.
Jacob Shapiro, the founder and chief strategist for Austin, Texas-based Perch Perspectives, told POWER that South Africa “will need outside investment” to support an expanded nuclear program, which is likely the case for any African nation. “Investment will come from the same suspects that bid on nuclear projects in South Africa before: Russia, China, France, South Korea, and possibly the United States.
Japan may throw its hat into the ring as well, but they have struggled to be competitive in more reliable markets than South Africa, like the UK and Turkey.”Shapiro continued: “It is hard for me to imagine Russia gaining much traction after [South African President Cyril] Ramaphosa scrapped the previous deal with Rosatom in 2019. That said, domestic politics can change quickly in South Africa and maybe it will be most interested in not getting caught between the U.S. and China, making Russia, South Korea or France better alternatives.
This still ultimately comes down to whichever government thinks South Africa is most important to its strategic interests, and that’s clearly China.”Russia, for its part, said it has a “wide range of technologies to offer” African nations exploring nuclear power.
Collyer told POWER those technologies range “from ‘large’ light water reactors [pressurized water reactors or PWRs] with capacity over 1 GW to small modular reactors [SMRs]. We were first to deploy commercial fast neutron reactors and are likely to be first to deploy high temperature gas-cooled reactors.
For each country we come up with a solution tailored to the features of the regional electricity market, including the readiness of the distribution grid.”The Nuclear Industry Association of South Africa (NIASA) has said there are at least six potential options for financing new nuclear power plants in the country, with Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe telling a parliamentary committee in mid-May he is open to considering innovative funding options in order to develop new nuclear capacity.
Support for new nuclear power plants in South Africa dimmed after the ruling party forced Jacob Zuma to resign as president in 2018, and officials had said the country could not afford to build additional plants. It also had been thought the economic issues caused by the COVID-19 pandemic would inhibit government-financed energy projects.However, Mantashe told the country’s lawmakers, “The nuclear build plan will go ahead and we will explore all options.” He said a contract could be awarded to “develop a modular nuclear station on a build, operate, and transfer basis, and that means there will be no immediate call for funding from the state.”Mantashe’s group, in a presentation to a parliamentary committee about its plans for the next five years, said, “The development of the roadmap for the 2,500-MW nuclear new-build program will be commencing soon.” Shapiro told POWER the most likely investor for that development is China. “China is South Africa’s most important trading partner, an important source of investment, and has been making inroads there for a while,” he said. “However, unlike the last time South Africa sought bids in 2016, the U.S. now views China as a strategic threat and I could see the U.S. government getting involved to push either an America alternative or an ‘anyone but China’ alternative. Think of what the U.S. is doing with Huawei—a similar tactic is possible, especially if President Trump wins again.”Though China may have an edge in trade with South Africa,
Russia is actively pursuing export of its nuclear technology across the continent, as it is doing around the globe. Rosatom has secured more than 30 reactor supply deals in recent years, and in 2019 the company said it had international projects worth $202.4 billion in its portfolio. The company also said it has 36 reactor construction projects outside of Russia at various implementation stages, and already has working agreements with Rwanda, Uganda, the Republic of Congo, and Ethiopia. “As for South Africa, we have great respect for the path taken by the country in the development of the nuclear industry.
We are open to cooperation on the widest range, subject to a request from our South African colleagues,” said Collyer. “Despite the shortcomings of the grid infrastructure in Africa, the latest generation of tried and tested ‘large’ PWRs, which are already being built in series across the globe, are still the clear winners in most regions, this in terms of the cost of electricity compared to any other technology.
In Africa, we are able to offer our latest generation PWR-type reactors—the VVER-1200—which is state of the art compared to the previous generation reactors. It is 20% more powerful; the amount of personnel operating the reactor has decreased [by] between 30% and 40%; and the lifetime of the reactor has doubled to 60 years, with the possibility of lasting an additional 20 years.“Considering the energy needs and peculiarities of energy systems of some African countries, Rosatom may offer its new solution—SMR nuclear power plant [NPP]. Rosatom has extensive experience with small-scale reactors that we have been mastering over many years on nuclear icebreakers, making them as safe and efficient as our flagship large reactors. Our RITM series reactors are the most modern ones, and already have references, as they are installed on board icebreakers of a new class, the first of which is undergoing sea trials,” Collyer said.The NIASA group said financing options for nuclear power in South Africa include:
Government funding of the entire project, or government-backed loan guarantees, supported by money from state-owned companies.
South Africa gets 77% of its energy needs from coal right now,” Shapiro said. “If you look at the most recent South African Integrated Resource Plan [IRP], it’s clear that nuclear is a small part of a more general attempt to reduce reliance on coal and fossil fuels, and embrace solar, wind, and hydropower. South Africa substituting some nuclear so it can burn less coal is progress from an environmental perspective.”Mantashe, in a May 7 address to South Africa’s Portfolio Committee on Mineral Resources and Energy, said his agency is preparing its nuclear power plan as mandated by the country’s 2019 IRP. Mantashe said his department would consider all options for nuclear power, including projects designed around SMRs.
He also said the government is considering replacing the SAFARI-1 research reactor with a multi-purpose reactor. SAFARI-1, which was commissioned in 1965, is a 20-MW light water-cooled, beryllium reflected, pool-type research reactor, initially used for high-level nuclear physics research programs. The reactor is owned and operated by South African Nuclear Energy Corp. at the company’s facility in Pelindaba.“Small modular reactors make more sense for South Africa, especially considering they are just looking for 2.5 GW of power from nuclear,” Shapiro said. “That’s one of the reasons the U.S. or South Korea might actually have an ace in the hole here. NuScale Power in the U.S. and SMART Power Company in South Korea are both at the cutting edge of SMRs. I would be surprised if South Africa didn’t pursue SMRs considering the energy minister specifically said South Africa was looking to develop modular nuclear stations and cost is the primary concern for the South African government.
The bigger question to me is whether South Africa actually goes through with nuclear at all.
I am not convinced South Africa can absorb the cost even if it does go the SMR route. If South Africa does go forward, SMRs are the logical way to proceed.” Mantashe’s agency also is developing an oversight plan for a program to enable Koeberg’s two reactors, which generate about 5% of the country’s electricity, to continue operating until at least 2044.
NIASA has noted that SMRs could be a more cost-effective way for South Africa to achieve its nuclear power goal. “The small units are also quite flexible in terms of location,” the agency said in a recent presentation. “Instead of investing in huge transmission lines where they do not already exist, these units can be sited as close to the load centers as possible.
They can also be located inland as they typically require much reduced cooling water. In the rest of the continent where the transmission infrastructure is limited or the demand is currently limited, the deployment of the SMRs close to load centers such as cities and mines, becomes key. South Africa can become a hub of the nuclear supply chain worldwide, in much the same way as in the automotive and aerospace industries.”The group said that SMRs located in coastal areas, and using high-temperature reactors (HTRs), also could be used for water desalination. Such a design is part of a demonstration project in China, with a reactor known as the HTR-PM, a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor. The HTR-PM differs from currently deployed water-cooled designs; the HTR-PM is cooled by helium and can reach temperatures as high as 750C.Kejian Zhang, chairman of the China Atomic Energy Authority (CAEA), speaking at the International Conference on Climate Change and the Role of Nuclear Power in Vienna, Austria, in October 2019, said, “The HTGR demonstration project with fourth-generation technology has made steady progress, and this reactor will be capable of hydrolytic hydrogen production and high temperature process heat.
We have also recently completed the preliminary design of a pool-type, low-temperature heat reactor, the DHR-400, which may be used for district heating.”2. The Akademik Lomonosov, a first-of-a-kind floating nuclear power plant, was connected to the power grid in Russia in December 2019. The barge is named after a famous academician, Mikhail Lomonosov. Courtesy: RosatomCollyer said Rosatom would be ready to supply SMRs. “We have made a real breakthrough in the small modular reactor.
Last December, our first-of-a-kind floating nuclear power plant Akademik Lomonosov [Figure 2] was connected to the grid in Chukotka, the Russian Far East. Our next priority is an onshore SMR NPP to be built in Russia by 2027. Thus, our versatile flagship SMR design—RITM-200—of 50-MWe capacity will have three key applications: onshore SMR-based plants, floating NPPs, and new icebreakers, which we are currently building for the Northern Sea route. By doing so we’ll secure enough demand to manufacture SMRs in series, which would drive down costs and lead times.”—…Is There a Market for Small Modular Reactors?The nuclear industry has been expecting big things from small modular reactors (SMRs) for a long time, but… WEBINARSSponsored By GE DigitalPower And Utilities: Russia, China Drive Africa’s Plan for Nuclear ExpansionOfficials in South Africa and across the African continent continue to explore new nuclear power generation projects, and the region provides an opportunity for other countries to export their advanced nuclear technologies.
South Africa’s Department of Mineral Resources and Energy in May said it wants a plan to procure as much as 2.5 GW of nuclear generation capacity within the next five years.
South Africa today has just two commercial reactors, both at the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station north of Cape Town.1. The Koeberg Nuclear Power Station, which was commissioned in 1984 and is operated by South Africa state-owned utility Eskom, features two pressurized water reactors, each with 970 MW of generation capacity. Source: Creative Commons / Pipodesign Philipp P. EgliKoeberg (Figure 1) is the only nuclear power plant currently in commercial operation on the entire African continent, although the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently said nearly a dozen other African nations have talked with the IAEA about formulating plans for nuclear power. The World Nuclear Association said at least seven sub-Saharan African states have signed agreements to deploy nuclear power with backing from Russia. Rosatom, the state-owned Russian nuclear company, is “currently working with more than 15 sub-Saharan African countries, including Ghana, Zambia, Kenya, South Africa, the Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania and others; as well as with the following North African countries: Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco,” according to Ryan Collyer, acting CEO of Rosatom Central and Southern Africa, who corresponded with POWER.Jacob Shapiro, the founder and chief strategist for Austin, Texas-based Perch Perspectives, told POWER that South Africa “will need outside investment” to support an expanded nuclear program, which is likely the case for any African nation. “Investment will come from the same suspects that bid on nuclear projects in South Africa before: Russia, China, France, South Korea, and possibly the United States.
Japan may throw its hat into the ring as well, but they have struggled to be competitive in more reliable markets than South Africa, like the UK and Turkey.”Shapiro continued: “It is hard for me to imagine Russia gaining much traction after [South African President Cyril] Ramaphosa scrapped the previous deal with Rosatom in 2019. That said, domestic politics can change quickly in South Africa and maybe it will be most interested in not getting caught between the U.S. and China, making Russia, South Korea or France better alternatives.
This still ultimately comes down to whichever government thinks South Africa is most important to its strategic interests, and that’s clearly China.”Russia, for its part, said it has a “wide range of technologies to offer” African nations exploring nuclear power.
Collyer told POWER those technologies range “from ‘large’ light water reactors [pressurized water reactors or PWRs] with capacity over 1 GW to small modular reactors [SMRs].
We were first to deploy commercial fast neutron reactors and are likely to be first to deploy high temperature gas-cooled reactors. For each country we come up with a solution tailored to the features of the regional electricity market, including the readiness of the distribution grid.”The Nuclear Industry Association of South Africa (NIASA) has said there are at least six potential options for financing new nuclear power plants in the country, with Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe telling a parliamentary committee in mid-May he is open to considering innovative funding options in order to develop new nuclear capacity. Support for new nuclear power plants in South Africa dimmed after the ruling party forced Jacob Zuma to resign as president in 2018, and officials had said the country could not afford to build additional plants.
It also had been thought the economic issues caused by the COVID-19 pandemic would inhibit government-financed energy projects.However, Mantashe told the country’s lawmakers, “The nuclear build plan will go ahead and we will explore all options.” He said a contract could be awarded to “develop a modular nuclear station on a build, operate, and transfer basis, and that means there will be no immediate call for funding from the state.”Mantashe’s group, in a presentation to a parliamentary committee about its plans for the next five years, said, “The development of the roadmap for the 2,500-MW nuclear new-build program will be commencing soon.” Shapiro told POWER the most likely investor for that development is China. “China is South Africa’s most important trading partner, an important source of investment, and has been making inroads there for a while,” he said. “However, unlike the last time South Africa sought bids in 2016, the U.S. now views China as a strategic threat and I could see the U.S. government getting involved to push either an America alternative or an ‘anyone but China’ alternative. Think of what the U.S. is doing with Huawei—a similar tactic is possible, especially if President Trump wins again.”
Though China may have an edge in trade with South Africa, Russia is actively pursuing export of its nuclear technology across the continent, as it is doing around the globe.
Rosatom has secured more than 30 reactor supply deals in recent years, and in 2019 the company said it had international projects worth $202.4 billion in its portfolio.
The company also said it has 36 reactor construction projects outside of Russia at various implementation stages, and already has working agreements with Rwanda, Uganda, the Republic of Congo, and Ethiopia.“As for South Africa, we have great respect for the path taken by the country in the development of the nuclear industry.
We are open to cooperation on the widest range, subject to a request from our South African colleagues,” said Collyer. “Despite the shortcomings of the grid infrastructure in Africa, the latest generation of tried and tested ‘large’ PWRs, which are already being built in series across the globe, are still the clear winners in most regions, this in terms of the cost of electricity compared to any other technology. In Africa, we are able to offer our latest generation PWR-type reactors—the VVER-1200—which is state of the art compared to the previous generation reactors. It is 20% more powerful; the amount of personnel operating the reactor has decreased [by] between 30% and 40%; and the lifetime of the reactor has doubled to 60 years, with the possibility of lasting an additional 20 years.“Considering the energy needs and peculiarities of energy systems of some African countries, Rosatom may offer its new solution—SMR nuclear power plant [NPP]. Rosatom has extensive experience with small-scale reactors that we have been mastering over many years on nuclear icebreakers, making them as safe and efficient as our flagship large reactors. Our RITM series reactors are the most modern ones, and already have references, as they are installed on board icebreakers of a new class, the first of which is undergoing sea trials,” Collyer said.The NIASA group said financing options for nuclear power in South Africa include:■ Government funding of the entire project, or government-backed loan guarantees, supported by money from state-owned companies.■ An intergovernmental loan.■ Corporate financing.■ Financing by plant vendors.■ A special investment vehicle to finance the project.■ A “build, own, operate” structure.The NIASA group said South Africa previously has used the special investment vehicle model to build natural gas-fired power plants. “South Africa gets 77% of its energy needs from coal right now,” Shapiro said. “If you look at the most recent South African Integrated Resource Plan [IRP], it’s clear that nuclear is a small part of a more general attempt to reduce reliance on coal and fossil fuels, and embrace solar, wind, and hydropower. South Africa substituting some nuclear so it can burn less coal is progress from an environmental perspective.”Mantashe, in a May 7 address to South Africa’s Portfolio Committee on Mineral Resources and Energy, said his agency is preparing its nuclear power plan as mandated by the country’s 2019 IRP. Mantashe said his department would consider all options for nuclear power, including projects designed around SMRs. He also said the government is considering replacing the SAFARI-1 research reactor with a multi-purpose reactor. SAFARI-1, which was commissioned in 1965, is a 20-MW light water-cooled, beryllium reflected, pool-type research reactor, initially used for high-level nuclear physics research programs. The reactor is owned and operated by South African Nuclear Energy Corp. at the company’s facility in Pelindaba.“Small modular reactors make more sense for South Africa, especially considering they are just looking for 2.5 GW of power from nuclear,” Shapiro said. “That’s one of the reasons the U.S. or South Korea might actually have an ace in the hole here. NuScale Power in the U.S. and SMART Power Company in South Korea are both at the cutting edge of SMRs. I would be surprised if South Africa didn’t pursue SMRs considering the energy minister specifically said South Africa was looking to develop modular nuclear stations and cost is the primary concern for the South African government. The bigger question to me is whether South Africa actually goes through with nuclear at all. I am not convinced South Africa can absorb the cost even if it does go the SMR route. If South Africa does go forward, SMRs are the logical way to proceed.” Mantashe’s agency also is developing an oversight plan for a program to enable Koeberg’s two reactors, which generate about 5% of the country’s electricity, to continue operating until at least 2044.NIASA has noted that SMRs could be a more cost-effective way for South Africa to achieve its nuclear power goal. “The small units are also quite flexible in terms of location,” the agency said in a recent presentation. “Instead of investing in huge transmission lines where they do not already exist, these units can be sited as close to the load centers as possible. They can also be located inland as they typically require much reduced cooling water.
In the rest of the continent where the transmission infrastructure is limited or the demand is currently limited, the deployment of the SMRs close to load centers such as cities and mines, becomes key.
South Africa can become a hub of the nuclear supply chain worldwide, in much the same way as in the automotive and aerospace industries.”The group said that SMRs located in coastal areas, and using high-temperature reactors (HTRs), also could be used for water desalination.
Such a design is part of a demonstration project in China, with a reactor known as the HTR-PM, a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor. The HTR-PM differs from currently deployed water-cooled designs; the HTR-PM is cooled by helium and can reach temperatures as high as 750C.Kejian Zhang, chairman of the China Atomic Energy Authority (CAEA), speaking at the International Conference on Climate Change and the Role of Nuclear Power in Vienna, Austria, in October 2019, said, “The HTGR demonstration project with fourth-generation technology has made steady progress, and this reactor will be capable of hydrolytic hydrogen production and high temperature process heat.
We have also recently completed the preliminary design of a pool-type, low-temperature heat reactor, the DHR-400, which may be used for district heating.”2.
The Akademik Lomonosov, a first-of-a-kind floating nuclear power plant, was connected to the power grid in Russia in December 2019.
The barge is named after a famous academician, Mikhail Lomonosov. Courtesy: RosatomCollyer said Rosatom would be ready to supply SMRs. “We have made a real breakthrough in the small modular reactor.
Last December, our first-of-a-kind floating nuclear power plant Akademik Lomonosov [Figure 2] was connected to the grid in Chukotka, the Russian Far East.
Our next priority is an onshore SMR NPP to be built in Russia by 2027. Thus, our versatile flagship SMR design—RITM-200—of 50-MWe capacity will have three key applications: onshore SMR-based plants, floating NPPs, and new icebreakers, which we are currently building for the Northern Sea route.
By doing so we’ll secure enough demand to manufacture SMRs in series, which would drive down costs and lead times.”—
Afrika-times.com
Is Ethiopia’s Window to Solve Conflict Closing?
On November 12, 2021, (Afrika-times.com)
Ethiopia outlined conditions for possible talks with rebels from the country’s war-hit Tigray region, following days of frantic diplomatic efforts by international envoys to head off another surge in fighting, AFP reports.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Dina Mufti told reporters that one of the conditions for possible talks – which he stressed have not been agreed to – would be for the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) to withdraw from the Amhara and Afar regions bordering Tigray.
Earlier, the United Nations said that at least 70 truck drivers delivering aid to the northern Ethiopian Tigray region had been detained on November 3, 2021, after the government of Prime Minister Ahmed Abiy declared a six-month nationwide state of emergency. Earlier, the organisation said 22 of its Ethiopian national staff were detained by the federal government in Addis Ababa. Six of the UN staffers were later released.
As the crisis in Ethiopia widens, East African mobile network operator Safaricom has announced that it has evacuated some of its employees. The Nation reports that Safaricom, whose consortium aims to start operations in Ethiopia in 2022, got the employees out of the country on November 3rd and 5th, 2021.
A number of nations, including the United States, Denmark and Italy, have asked their citizens in Ethiopia to leave while commercial flights were still available, as Tigrayan rebel forces and their allies advance towards the capital Addis Ababa.In November 2020, forces of the TPLF attacked a federal army base in the region, which led the prime minister to order a military offensive against the rebels, which has left thousands dead.On November 8, 2021 the African Union and United Nations Security Council convened an emergency session under the title ‘update on the situation in Northern Ethiopia’, days after the national defence force called on former army officers to register “to thwart the ongoing assault”. At the session, UN political chief Rosemary DiCarlo said the conflict had reached “disastrous proportions”. The African Union envoy for the Horn of Africa and former Nigerian president, Olusegun Obasanjo, warned that “the window of opportunity is closing for a political resolution of the crisis in northern Ethiopia”.
Somaliland Has More Freedom Than Ethiopia, Djibouti And Somalia, Says US Report
(afrika-times.com) In its recently-released annual report, Freedom in the World 2021, the watchdog said Somaliland scored 43 on the 100-point Freedom House Index, while Ethiopia scored 19, Djibouti scored 26, Eritrea scored 2 and Somalia also scored 7 on the 100-point Freedom House index.
US-based independent watchdog Freedom House has asserted it’s latest report that the Somaliland enjoys more freedom than other Horn of Africa’s countries like Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Somalia.
The US was rated 86 on the index, closely followed by India at 75.Germany and France scored higher than the US as Freedom House expressed concern over the state of affairs in America.Interestingly, the Indian state of Jammu & Kashmir enjoys more freedom than Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK) contrary to allegations leveled by Imran Khan-led government in Pakistan.
Jammu & Kashmir scored 49 on the 100-point Freedom House Index, while Pakistan scored 39 and PoK a paltry 28. The report also labeled PoK as “not free” in terms of freedom enjoyed by its residents and the functioning of local institutes.While the report termed Pakistan as “partly free”, it labeled India a “free” country alongside the US, several European nations, Japan, Australia, South Africa, and several Latin American countries.“Elections in Somaliland have been relatively free and fair, but years-long delays have meant that elected officials serve well beyond their original mandates.
Journalists face pressure from authorities, and police have employed excessive force and engaged in arbitrary detention. Minor clans are subject to political and economic marginalization, and violence against women remains a serious problem,” the report said, adding that “Somaliland’s political rights rating improved from 5 to 4 due to the holding of a long-delayed presidential election.”On the electoral process, the Freedom House had said in its report in 2018 “The president is directly elected for a maximum of two five-year terms and appoints the cabinet.
The electoral mandate of incumbent president Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud “Sillanyo” of the Peace, Unity, and Development Party (Kulmiye) expired in 2015, but the presidential election due that year was not held until November 2017.
Muse Bihi Abdi, the Kulmiye candidate, won the contest with 55 percent of the vote, followed by Abdurahman Mohamed Abdullahi of the opposition Wadani party with 40 percent and Faisal Ali Warabe of the For Justice and Development (UCID) party with 4 percent.International monitors identified some irregularities in the process—including unstamped ballot papers and underage voting—and there was an outbreak of violence while results were being finalized, with police firing on pro-Wadani protesters amid suspicions of fraud. However, the observers concluded that such problems did not significantly affect the final result, which Wadani ultimately accepted in the public interest.Score Change: The score improved from 0 to 3 because Somaliland held a competitive presidential election, ending a two-year period in which the chief executive lacked an electoral mandate.”Be the first to know – Follow us on Twitter @SaxafiThe Freedom House report with a focus on “democracy in retreat” said in 2018, freedom in the world recorded the 13th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Domestic attacks on key institutions—the judiciary, the media, and electoral mechanisms—are undermining the foundations of democracy, the report said.It said at the same time, a global assault on the norms of democracy, led by an increasingly assertive China, challenges their spread around the world. Only by strengthening democracy at home and standing together in its defense around the world can democracies protect their values and preserve their ability to expand freedom globally, the report said.
It also said that the internet and other digital technologies have become ubiquitous as a means of accessing information, communicating, and participating in public debates. Consequently, technology and social media companies play an increasingly important role in sustaining—or weakening—democracy.
Author: Africa Times News
Horn Of Africa Is The Most Militarized Region On Earth
The combination of external actors has made the Horn the most militarized and complex security region, housing the largest number of foreign military bases in the world. The massive presence of six foreign military bases in Djibouti, and more in Sudan, Somalia and Somaliland, underlines the strategic importance of the Horn. Dawit W. Giorgis, a visiting scholar at the African Studies Centre at Boston University.
Horn Of Africa Is The Most Militarized Region On Earth
The Horn of Africa is witnessing far-reaching changes in its external security relations. It is simultaneously experiencing an increase in the build-up of foreign military forces – on land and at sea – and a broadening of the security agendas pursued by these external actors.
The combination of these factors has made the Horn the most militarized and complex security region, housing the largest number of foreign military bases in the world. Though Egypt and Yemen are not in the Greater Horn, they are however part of the security complex of the Red Sea arena. It is known as the “choke point,” because much of the world’s commerce goes through this maritime route. At one point, when Somali pirates ruled the sea, the area was identified as the most dangerous naval zone in the world, notoriety now claimed by the Gulf of Guinea.
Those who control the Horn of Africa control a significant chunk of the world’s economies. The massive presence of six foreign military bases in Djibouti, and more in Sudan, Somalia and Somaliland, underlines the strategic importance of the Horn.
This situation would have inspired or forced the countries of the Horn to be more united and have common strategic and security policies. Each of these forces has a stake in the development of events in the Horn and an agenda that puts their interests at the forefront.However, there are notable rivalries between the countries of the Horn of Africa, which has not enabled the forging of the necessary harmony in their relationships.
Eritrea and Djibouti have not put their border conflict of 2007 behind them. However, they agreed to normalize their relationship two years ago, although Djibouti still considers Eritrea an enemy, considering a recent statement in relations to the prosecution of a pilot that allegedly tried to run away to an “enemy” territory.But a conference call between the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and East African countries on March 30, 2020, was made to forge a regional plan to combat the Novel Coronavirus pandemic.
Four presidents from Somalia, Uganda, Kenya and Djibouti were joined by the prime ministers of Ethiopia and Sudan and the first vice-president of South Sudan. Eritrea did not participate, because its membership has not yet been regularized since it left IGAD in 2007.
This is while Kenya-Somalia relations have escalated in the last few years. It stems from the security concern related to the terror group Al-Shabaab and the maritime border dispute between the two states.
The terror group has been continuously launching attacks across the border at Kenyan military outposts and against civilians in the area.The maritime boundary dispute between Nairobi and Mogadishu further complicates the relationship between the two. Somalia instituted proceedings against Kenya before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) about their maritime boundary in the Indian Ocean, on August 28, 2014. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has approved a request by Kenya to delay the public hearing of its maritime boundary case with Somalia.
The case is still pending.Taking the matter further, Kenya has started negotiating the withdrawal of its forces the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) by 2021, making Ethiopia carry the bulk of troop contributions of the five countries that will remain.
These are bad signals of souring relationships, which can contribute to the overall destabilization of the fragile region.Neither are Ethiopia and Sudan on the best of terms. The borders between the two countries are the scene of occasional fighting, with recent skirmishes having turned deadly. It is unnecessary and preventable incidents that only add to the burden of stress the two countries have on their very sensitive and fragile relationship.“It is not clear exactly what triggered a flare-up of this long-standing border dispute,” stated the International Crisis Group (ICG). “Sources suggest that Sudanese security forces may have responded to incursions by Ethiopian troops.”Sudan is in the unique position of being a member of the Arab League, which makes it close to Egypt, but a generally close ally of Ethiopia as well. It has to play high stakes diplomacy not to be seen as siding with either.
Despite enormous pressure from Egypt and the United States, Sudan has held its ground. The bold and calculated decision manifested this in voting against other members of the Arab League on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).Sudan expressed “reservations” that the resolution does not serve its interests and might lead to confrontations between the Arab League countries and Ethiopia. This support of Sudan should not be taken for granted though. Last week, Sudan called for the United Nations Security Council`s intervention regarding Ethiopia’s plan to fill the Dam.“While acknowledging Ethiopia’s right to utilize its natural resources, Sudan has stressed the need for consultation and cooperation among the three countries to avoid the harm lower stream countries could suffer as a result of Ethiopia’s activities,” read Sudan’s memorandum to the Security Council.Concerning the GERD, Sudan highlighted the benefits and threats that could follow the construction. It acknowledged the benefits the Dam could have in helping manage periodic flooding and in raising Sudan’s capacity to generate electric power.“On the other hand, Sudan claimed that the construction of the Dam could change the flow line of the river and that it could affect Sudanese citizens negatively if the design, construction and filling works are not followed daily and closely.”This should be of great concern to Ethiopia, especially considering that a new regional organization with suspect motives – Council of Arab and African States Bordering the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden (CAASBRSGA) – has already been established on January 6, 2020. Although Egypt first initiated the idea, it was later taken over by Saudi Arabia.Its members are the coastal states of the Red Sea, including Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen (the internationally recognized government), Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia.
The stated goals of this new organization are to improve cooperation and coordination among the members in matters related to politics, economy, culture, the environment and security. The Council is an unnecessary organization and one loaded with an Arab and Egyptian agenda. The Arab League is installing its subsidiary branch closer to home.“One of the most important issues is the one of membership. Currently, the criteria to be a member of the Council are to be a Red Sea coastal state.
This is the criterion defended by Egypt,” wrote the Middle Eastern business and financial news outlet MENAFN. “This position seeks to keep Ethiopia outside of Red Sea affairs, a position not shared by many of the members, who believe that despite its lack of access to the sea, Addis Ababa is a key player in Red Sea affairs. The reason for this absence is the litigation that Egypt and Ethiopia maintain over the construction of the Renaissance Dam in the Nile.”The stated goals of the Council include matters related to the Nile, an issue vital for Ethiopia. The strategy of Egypt and its allies is to choke Ethiopia through myriad projects. Ethiopia must vigorously fight such moves, but it does not seem that the Ethiopian government is aware of the dangers. At the same time, it flirts with the very countries that are active partners on the other side of the debate.
There has been a flurry of activities between South Sudan and Egypt as well since the crisis between Ethiopia and Egypt intensified over the GERD. Some of these activities are suspicious.
South Sudan had submitted its application in 2018, for a second time, to join the Arab League. There have also been diplomatic moves led by Egypt within the Arab League emphasizing the importance of South Sudan joining the organization, given Juba’s strategic geographical position serving as the Arab gateway to Africa.
With steadily and warmer relations with Ethiopia’s new neighbor, South Sudanese President Silva Kiir and Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi have exchanged visits followed by several others at ministerial levels.Bringing South Sudan into the Arab League completes the strangulation of Ethiopia by Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea.
Seen together with the Council on The Red Sea Coast, the threats directed at Ethiopia are real and severe.This is the result of the failure of Ethiopia`s diplomacy.
Its fractured unity and volatile internal security situation have resulted in establishing a fertile ground for Egypt and other extremist and hostile forces to recruit people and spread propaganda that will further destabilize the country.Ethiopian diplomacy suffered a big blow when the 23 Arab League members, except Sudan, supported the draft resolution prepared by Egypt.
This must have been a clear sign that there was little effort from Ethiopia’s side.“The draft agreement proposed by the United States and the World Bank is fair and serves the interests of the three countries,” affirmed The Arab League.Somalia and Djibouti, Ethiopia’s “close allies,” voted for it. Eritrea, an observer, said nothing.
Although its president, Isaias Afwerki, has come out as an elder statesman and mentor of Ethiopia`s Prime Minister, we have yet to see him as “a friend in need, a friend indeed.”This diplomatic spat is occurring in a region that should otherwise be banding together to address challenges that affect every member.
Besides the COVID-19 pandemic, the UN Food & Agricultural Organization (FAO) has warned East African countries about the outbreak of the desert locust, which has already placed around 20 million people in acute food insecurity in Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda and Tanzania.
Ethiopia and the region are facing three-pronged attacks: pandemics, possible famine and regional and internal security challenges. A vital organ in such a time would have been IGAD, which until 1996 was preceded by the establishment of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Drought & Development (IGADD) was initiated in the mid-1980s.This was after Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Uganda took action through the United Nations to establish an intergovernmental body for development and drought control in their region in 1983 and 1984.
The Assembly of Heads of State and Government met in Djibouti in January 1986 to sign the agreement, which officially launched IGADD with its headquarters in Djibouti. Eritrea became the seventh member after attaining its independence in 1993.
Then the focus was drought and food security.The recurring and severe droughts and other natural disasters in the decade beginning 1974 caused widespread famine, ecological degradation and economic hardship in the Eastern Africa region.
Although individual countries made substantial efforts to cope with the situation and received generous support from the international community, the magnitude and extent of the problem argued strongly for a regional approach to supplement national efforts.IGAD has never solved any political crisis. But it serves as a forum where leaders can meet and discuss their shared concerns.
However, IGAD can only be what its members want it to be. It can be an excellent tool if external agendas do not subvert it.
Members must first be committed to peaceful resolution through bilateral negotiations.
Creating other layers of organizations for the Horn will not help achieve any of the development, security and cooperation goals, but merely makes IGAD redundant. The regional body must be supported and reinforced to be a relevant organization. The spirit of cooperation needed here is one that President Isaias, Somalia’s Mohamed Farmajo Abdullahi and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) showed when they agreed on a joint plan of action for this year after the third edition of a tripartite summit in Asmara. This was in February 2020.
The alliance also adopted a new Joint Plan of Action for 2020.The plan focuses “on two main and intertwined objectives of consolidating peace, stability and security, as well as promoting economic and social development,” as Yemane Gebremeskel, Eritrea`s Information Minister, explained.“They also agreed to bolster efforts for effective regional cooperation.”On the security front, the leaders formulated a strategy to combat common threats, such as terrorism, arms and human trafficking, and drug smuggling. These efforts are leading “to some sort of Horn of Africa coalition,” even a “Cushitic Alliance,” according to the East African newspaper.Such an alliance will overlap with the mandate of IGAD.
It remains ambiguous what is in the minds of these leaders. But to an outsider, this looks like more of a problem than a solution.How can the three countries, in exclusion of Djibouti, Sudan and Kenya, forge an alliance that can bring peace to the region?Beyond the long-term ambition of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to control the Horn of Africa, the immediate goal of Egypt is to secure its interest on the Nile. Many Ethiopians are expressing their anger and showing patriotism through a rhetoric of war.
War in this politically charged, highly militarized strategic region would be destructive beyond our imagination.
If anyone “wins,” it will only be at enormous cost. Even that will be a preparation for the next round of war.The case of Egypt needs wisdom and patience.
War should be the ultimate exercise to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of any country. Heroes are those who prevent war and not make war.
There is an attempt to resuscitate discussions between Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt, but tripartite talks should not be the preferred way for Ethiopia. This case is about the Nile and the rights of the Nile Basin countries. Sudan is not a reliable partner in this case for Ethiopia.
The issue is best served if brought before the Nile Basin countries and not a tripartite meeting where the odds do not favor Ethiopia.The only viable option for Ethiopia and Egypt is to bring back their case to Africa, call an emergency meeting of the heads of state of the Nile Basin countries and continue the dialogue and, if necessary, bring it to the level of the African Heads of State.
But before this can be done, the Ethiopian government has to do the legwork by approaching each of the Nile Basin countries and presenting its case and a possible solution that will serve the interests of both Egypt and Ethiopia. These discussions should be led by knowledgeable people that understand the intricacy of the problem at hand.
In the meantime, unilateral actions on both sides should be avoided as much as possible.The foundation for stability in the Horn begins with bilateral efforts to solve their differences in the face of mounting political, security and pandemic crisis. It is not patriotism not to compromise but is expressed best when the crisis between countries are solved through bilateral negotiations, including compromise.Give and take is the essence of diplomacy. But leaders need to know what to give and what to take. This requires a grasp on history and debate.
The building blocks for sustainable peace in the region begin with a capacity of each leader to discern the truth and not to mistake information as knowledge.
For the latter, leaders have people who have a sense of history and can see the big picture through the lenses of current affairs.The fact that the Horn of Africa is the most militarized region on earth is not a coincidence. Let us encourage our leaders to take stock of the situation on the area and trek carefully in this treacherous minefield: what the Horn has become.
Author Publisher: @shakiressa
More than 350,000 suffering from famine conditions in Ethiopia’s Tigray, says UN
More than 350,000 people in Ethiopia’s Tigray region are suffering famine conditions, with millions more at risk, according to an analysis by UN agencies and aid groups that blamed conflict for the worst food crisis in a decade.“There is famine now in Tigray,” the UN aid chief,
Mark Lowcock, said on Thursday after the release of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis.“The number of people in famine conditions … is higher than anywhere in the world, at any moment since a quarter million Somalis lost their lives in 2011,” Lowcock said.Most of the 5.5 million people in Tigray need food aid. Fighting broke out in the region in November between government troops and the region’s former ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.The violence has killed thousands of civilians and forced more than 2 million from their homes in the mountainous region.Ethiopia rejects calls for ceasefire in Tigray, claiming victory is nearThe most extreme warning by the IPC – a scale used by UN agencies, regional bodies and aid groups to determine food insecurity – is phase 5, which starts with a catastrophe warning and rises to a declaration of famine in a region.
Uhuru kenyatta is clearly seeking recognition to somaliland as newest country in africa
- Somalia had accused Somaliland of undermining its sovereignty after a delegation led by President Muse Bihi was hosted by President Uhuru Kenyatta at Nairobi’s Statehouse
• But Somaliland through its Foreign Affairs responded by saying such an irrelevant statement Somalia shows nothing but only failure and irresponsibility.
- KENYA MAINTAINED ITS RECOGNITION OF SOMALILAND AS NEWEST COUNTRY IN AFRICA
(Afrika-times.com- Somalia and Somaliland on Monday engaged in a war of words on Twitter following the latter’s delegation visit to Nairobi.
Somalia had accused Somaliland of undermining its sovereignty after a delegation led by President Muse Bihi was hosted by President Uhuru Kenyatta at Nairobi’s Statehouse.
Through its Foreign Affairs, Somalia said Bihi’s visit must be treated with all contempt it deserved.
The ministry later deleted the tweet.
“Somaliland is the federal Member State of Somalia. It, therefore, has no legitimacy to directly deal with Kenya especially now that we have severed our diplomatic ties,” part of the tweet read.
It also read, “Muse Bihi’s visit to Nairobi undermines the sovereignty of Somalia and must be treated with the contempt it deserves”.
But Somaliland through its Foreign Affairs responded by saying such an irrelevant statement Somalia shows nothing but only failure and irresponsibility.
Somaliland said as an independent country it has a right to make a decision to strengthen its mutual relationship with Kenya which is also an independent country.
“The irrelevant statement from the failed administration of Somalia shows nothing but only failure and irresponsibility. The Republic of Somaliland and The Republic of Kenya are two independent countries which has (sic) the rightful decision to strengthen their mutual relationship, ” the tweet read.
President Uhuru Kenyatta hosted bilateral talks between Kenya and Somaliland delegation led by President Musa Bihi Abdi at State House on Monday.
President Abdi arrived in the country on Sunday for a three-day official visit.
During the meeting, the two leaders initiated discussions on a number of subjects of mutual interest between Kenya and Somaliland.
The two delegations are set to meet again on Tuesday to finalise the talks.
Kenya has no diplomatic presence in Somaliland but takes cognizance of the political and economic stability of the region.
The country is keen to enhance and broaden trade in goods and services, as well as an investment as the cornerstone for long-term development cooperation with the region.
There has been a looming diplomatic spat between Nairobi and Mogadishu after Farmnajo expelled Kenya’s ambassador to Mogadishu Ambassador Lucas Tumbo.
Mogadishu cited what it termed as the Kenyan government’s interference in its internal and political affairs.
“The federal government f Somalia expresses it regret in the government of Kenya’s overt and blatant interferences in the internal and political affairs of Somalia which has the potential to be a hindrance to stability,” a statement from Somalia’s foreign ministry said.
But Kenya in its response dismissed the claims terming them unsubstantiated allegations.
Nairobi said it had not received any Note Verbale or any other official communication from Mogadishu requesting Kenya’s ambassador to leave for Nairobi for consultations.
“However, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ attention has been drawn to a press statement purportedly released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Federal Republic of Somalia,” a statement from the ministry said.
“This action is reportedly based on unsubstantiated allegations, namely, “continued interference in the internal affairs of Somalia”. The Government of Kenya respects and upholds the cardinal international principles of self-determination, sovereignty, political independence, and territorial integrity of all countries, and in particular those in Africa,” Nairobi said.
Mbili Niagro, Nairobi Kenya Afrika-times.com
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Berbera ports: The africa most valuable real estate
Berbera and Zeila, two of the Horn of Africa’s ancient trading cities, have long attracted the interest of global powers because of their strategic location near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait connecting the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. This location makes Somaliland’s coastal ports among the region’s most valuable real estate and an alternative to Djibouti as a key player in terms of trade, development, energy, and water security for the Red Sea and Horn of Africa.
Richard Burton, the British explorer, recognized the importance of Berbera port back in 1896, writing:
In the first place, Berbera is the true key of the Red Sea, the centre of East African traffic, and the only safe place for shipping upon the western Eritrean shore, from Suez to Guardafui. Backed by lands capable of cultivation, and by hills covered with pine and other valuable trees, enjoying a comparatively temperate climate, with a regular although thin monsoon, this harbour has been coveted by many a foreign conqueror. Circumstances have thrown it as it were into our arms, and, if we refuse the chance, another and a rival nation will not be so blind.
A new geopolitical rivalry in the Red Sea
Somaliland’s ports still remain the object of international interest and rivalry today, although the foreign powers involved have changed. On July 1, according to an official statement, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said Taiwan had agreed to establish ties with Somaliland based on “friendship and a shared commitment to common values of freedom, democracy, justice, and the rule of law.”
Less than a week later, however, Somalia’s federal government, led by President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, aligned itself with China to prevent a Taiwanese-Somaliland nexus that would have clear geopolitical ramifications for the Horn of Africa.
While China and Somalia rebuffed and condemned the new strategic bilateral ties between Somaliland and Taiwan, the U.S. National Security Council has blessed Taiwan’s venture into East Africa, sending a clear message to China that the U.S. stands with Taiwan. This is a significant blow to the Chinese government, which has used its international influence and “development-trap diplomacy” in recent decades to rally support among African and Middle Eastern states for its efforts to suppress Taiwan’s presence in the international sphere.
Egypt, Ethiopia, and Somaliland
On July 12, a high-level delegation from Egypt traveled to Somaliland. Although an Egyptian delegation had visited in 2019, angering Somalia, this year’s trip comes at a critical time as Ethiopia and Egypt have locked horns in their dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The Egyptian delegation’s visit prompted protests from the Ethiopian government, and Egypt’s growing bilateral ties and cooperation with Somaliland are giving Ethiopia GERD problems of its own — as in gastroesophageal reflux disease.
It is important to note that Ethiopia has a 19 percent stake in the port of Berbera, which is managed by the UAE’s DP World with a 51 percent stake, while Somaliland holds 30 percent. In May 2019, Ethiopia signed its first military cooperation agreement with France, which covers joint air cooperation and includes assistance for Ethiopia’s efforts to build up its naval forces — although where the landlocked country plans to dock these naval forces remains unclear. Joking aside, Ethiopia’s naval endeavors are driven by two main factors: first, concerns over the future of Djibouti’s port, which the IMF categorizes as at a “high risk of debt distress,” comparable to the Sri Lankan port of Hambantota, which was built with Chinese financing and which Beijing took control of after Colombo failed to meet its debt obligations; and second, to protect 11 state-owned commercial vessels managed by the Ethiopian Shipping & Logistics Services Enterprise (ESLSE).
Scramble for fragile Somaliland
Although Somaliland is relatively peaceful compared to Somalia, its lack of international recognition makes it fragile and susceptible to being drawn into regional disputes as it seeks allies, bilateral ties, and eventual recognition. This has been the case with the Gulf states, where it has sided with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. In part as a result of this fragility and desire to secure more allies and improve bilateral ties, Somaliland now finds itself in the middle of multiple disputes among other states, including Ethiopia and Egypt and China and Taiwan.
Taken together, the current domestic instability in Ethiopia and its tensions with Egypt over the GERD, combined with the global superpower competition in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea, are a recipe for conflict that could trigger the largest refugee influx in African history. This could destabilize Somaliland and with it key international maritime trade routes, making it vulnerable to insecurity and terrorism that directly affects both Ethiopia and Djibouti, with which it shares its western border.
To reduce future geopolitical uncertainty and security risk in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, it’s in the best interest of the international community to take the following steps:
Consider recognizing Somaliland;
Praise Taiwan-Somaliland relations instead of giving in to Chinese pressure and potentially keeping at bay Russia, which also has a keen interest in establishing a military base at Berbera port; and
Include Somaliland in the Red Sea Council and help it develop its own navy.
Shakir Essa report
Egypt to withdraw from latest Nile dam talks for consultations
Egypt fears the $4bn project could lead to water shortages upstream, while Sudan is concerned about dam’s safety.
05 Aug 2020 GMT+3
Egypt has decided to withdraw from the latest round of tripartite negotiations over Ethiopia’s multibillion-dollar dam on the Blue Nile for internal consultations after Addis Ababa proposed a new draft of filling guidelines.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which is being built about 15km (nine miles) from the Ethiopian border with Sudan on the Blue Nile, has become a major sticking point between the three countries.
Egypt fears the $4bn project could lead to water shortages upstream, while Sudan said it is concerned about the dam’s safety.
The Egyptian water ministry, in a statement on Tuesday, said Ethiopia put forward a draft proposal that lacked regulations on the operation of the dam or any legal obligations.
Addis Ababa’s draft also lacked a legal mechanism for settling disputes, according to the Egyptian ministry.
“Egypt and Sudan demanded meetings be suspended for internal consultations on the Ethiopian proposal, which contravenes what was agreed upon during the African Union summit,” it said.
The Blue Nile is a tributary of the Nile river, from which Egypt’s 100 million people get 90 percent of their fresh water.
Ethiopia dam dispute: Concerns in Sudan’s Blue Nile state (2:55)
Sudan’s safety concerns
Meanwhile, Sudan’s irrigation ministry said the latest Ethiopian position presented in talks on Tuesday raised new fears over the track the negotiations had been on.
Khartoum also threatened to withdraw from the talks, saying Ethiopia insisted on linking them to renegotiating a deal on sharing the waters of the Blue Nile.
Sudan’s water and irrigation minister, Yasser Abbas, said he received a letter from his Ethiopian counterpart who proposed “the deal under discussion be limited to filling up the dam and any deal concerning its management be linked to the question of sharing Blue Nile waters”.
Egypt and Sudan invoke a “historic right” over the river guaranteed by treaties concluded in 1929 and 1959.
But Ethiopia uses a treaty signed in 2010 by six riverside countries and boycotted by Egypt and Sudan authorising irrigation projects and dams on the river.
“This new Ethiopian position threatens the negotiations under the aegis of the African Union, and Sudan will not participate in negotiations which include the subject of sharing Blue Nile waters,” Abbas said.
“Sudan will not allow the lives of 20 million citizens who live along the Blue Nile to be tied to an agreement on sharing the water of this river.”
The call came after a meeting of technical and legal committees from the three countries aimed at pushing for a deal on the filling and operation of the GERD.
The meeting was also attended by observers from the United States and the European Union as well as experts from the Africa
Ethiopia admits shooting down Kenya aid aircraft in Somalia The plane had been carrying humanitarian and medical supplies to help the country
Ethiopia admits shooting down Kenya aid aircraft in Somalia The plane had been carrying humanitarian and medical supplies to help the country fight the spread of coronavirus.
09 May 2020 GMT+3 Ethiopia on Saturday admitted it was behind the shooting down of a privately owned Kenyan plane in Somalia earlier this week, resulting in the deaths of all six people on board. The plane was shot down on Monday by Ethiopian troops protecting a camp in the town of Bardale in southwestern Somalia, the Ethiopian army said in a statement to the African Union (AU). More: Six killed as plane carrying coronavirus aid crashes in Somalia Anger in Mogadishu after police kill civilian in COVID-19 curfew Somali state minister dies from coronavirus The aircraft had been carrying humanitarian and medical supplies to help the country fight the spread of coronavirus when it went down in Bardale, about 300km (180 miles) northwest of Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. The Ethiopian soldiers mistakenly believed the plane was on a “potential suicide mission” because they had not been informed about the “unusual flight” and the aircraft was flying low, the statement said. “Because of lack of communication and awareness, the aircraft was shot down,” the military said. “The incident … will require mutual collaborative investigation team from Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya to further understand the truth.” Kenya expressed shock over the incident earlier this week, saying the plane’s mission had been to aid Somalia in tackling the coronavirus pandemic.
Soldiers from Ethiopia and Kenya are among those deployed to Somalia as part of an AU peacekeeping mission to fight the armed group al-Shabab. The shooting down of the plane comes amid strained ties between Kenya and Somalia. Last month, Kenya accused Somali troops of an “unwarranted attack” across its border near Mandera, a northern outpost town, describing the incident as a provocation. Somalia, meanwhile, has long accused its larger neighbour of meddling in its internal affairs, something Kenya has denied.
What Kenya Stands to Lose and Gain By Withdrawing From Somalia:
Johannesburg, South africa: By Stig Jarle Hansen
Kenya has started negotiating a withdrawal from Somalia by 2021. The country is set to leave as Ethiopia’s influence continues to rise.
Kenya has achieved a lot since it intervened in 2011. Its intervention was a “game changer”, contributing to a momentum that led to al-Shabaab losing all major Somali cities. But it has fallen short of its goals to subdue al-Shabaab and end terrorism in Kenya. And it will leave a Somalia where its rivals are gaining power and challenging Kenyan national interests.
The intervention
Kenya’s public motive for intervening in 2011 was self-defence. Its defence forces moved into Somalia to stop al-Shabaab attacks and improve the country’s internal security. Since then, al-Shabaab has lost territorial control over all of Somalia’s larger cities. In 2012, Kenya reclaimed Kismayo. In the same year, it convinced Ethiopia to join the fight.
The combined forces of Kenya and Ethiopia were redeployed under the African Union Mission to Somalia. This was crucial in containing al-Shabaab between 2012 and 2016. This combined force weakened the terror group to the point that it is now unable to hold territories within Somali cities.
But this still does not mean that the intervention was successful. Since it began, al-Shabaab has launched three large attacks in Kenya. In 2013, it attacked Westgate Mall in Nairobi. In 2015, it attacked Garissa University in northeastern Kenya. And last year it attacked the Dusit Hotel complex, also in the capital.
By late 2019, al-Shabaab’s infiltration in Kenya’s northeast intensified, and locals are increasingly accommodating their presence.
The situation in the area around the coastal town of Lamu is similar. Al-Shabaab is taking advantage of animosities between the Muslim Bajunis and the Christian elite who settled in the area in the 1970s.
Broadly speaking, Kenya has managed to curtail al-Shabaab activities in trouble spots in Kilifi and Mombasa. The country also managed to return a large number of foreign fighters to Somalia without much blow-back. Yet the intervention of 2011 failed to keep Kenya completely safe.
Nor did it fully vanquish al-Shabaab. The group is still strong, despite having lost much of its territory. It is richer than ever, propelled by its efficient taxing of the Somali business community, tolled checkpoints and investments, including some in the agricultural sector. Its leadership structure remains intact, with many key officers having served more than four years.
Kenya’s dilemmas
Kenya’s withdrawal from Somalia will have its own drawbacks. For one, it will abandon its long-time allies inside Somalia. Thus, it will lose leverage with both Addis Ababa and Mogadishu.
The government of Somalia’s president, known as Farmajo, has increasingly been at odds with Kenya. The two countries are currently in a diplomatic row over their shared maritime border.
Second, Farmajo’s agenda to place his preferred candidates in political office in Somalia’s regional states has challenged Kenya’s allies in Somalia and especially the regional state of Jubaland.
It has become clear that Farmajo is willing to draw Ethiopian forces as well as the Somali National Army into his quest to consolidate power by appointing political allies. This has pitched Ethiopia against Kenya, and created tension. Ethiopian forces have recently intervened in support of the Somali government in Mogadishu, targeting the enemies of the Farmajo government. That government has been increasingly willing to use military force against the opposition (as well as the Somali media, and against the regional state of Jubaland, led by Kenyan ally Ahmed Mohamed Islam “Madobe”.
Kenya leaves a Somalia where neighbouring Ethiopia plays an increasing role, and also works against Kenya’s former allies. Also, there are stronger totalitarian tendencies on the part of the Somali presidency than before.
Its withdrawal will leave Ethiopia with a dominating position in the African Union Mission to Somalia. As Ethiopia’s alliance with Farmajo is strong, this is bad news for the Somali opposition, including allies of Kenya.
By withdrawing, Kenya has also let its allies down. It has shown that it cannot be trusted to stay the course. Yet the withdrawal follows a wider pattern in Kenyan politics, wherein the 2011 intervention was the exception.
@ Afrika-times.com
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